According to this Realtytrac report for first Quarter 2009, California was #3 in the country in terms of highest percentages of foreclosure filings at ~1.72%, Arizona just beat us out ~ 1.85% and Nevada was the undisputed champ at ~ 3.7%. Realtytrac defines a foreclosure filing as an NOD, NTS or a bank repossession.

The national average is ~.63% of all U.S. Properties (had some sort of foreclosure filing during that same time period.)

Defaults in California are up by record numbers according to this Dataquick article.  Up 80% from prior quarter (Q4 2008) and 19% from prior year quarter (Q1 2008). 

~70% of loans originated by ResMae 8/06=>11/06 have defaulted, Masters Financial and Ownit were both North of 60% too during that time period, WOW!!...

Both DataQuick and Realtytrac report that their Q1 2009 default statistics were at record highs for any period in their history (but since Realtytrac only goes back to 2005 and DataQuick 1992 this might not by itself be significant).


My personal interpretation of this data:


Near Term Price Prediction


There are lots of REO's still to come.  The foreclosure moratorium delayed the inevitable.  Just like government trying to artificially keep home prices at levels unsupported by real Californian income levels will also only delay the inevitable.  But remember, you are not supposed to be buying RE for what you think it will do for you in the short term, this isn't daytrading...  And believe it or not formulating your Real Estate deciscions 100% on insights from online Real Estate blogs is not advised either (even if it is an insider tip you got from reading the revered IET Real Estate Blog)  You are supposed to be sitting down with a professional from IET Real Estate and allowing us to help you analyze the numbers to see if the investment makes sense for you long term in concert with your other investments and your overall financial picture.





Posted by Ben Nicolas on
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